Forecasting world trade: direct versus "bottom-up" approaches
In: Working paper series 882
12 Ergebnisse
Sortierung:
In: Working paper series 882
In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 47, S. 282-299
ISSN: 0165-1889
How does the need to preserve government debt sustainability affect the optimal monetary and fiscal policy response to a liquidity trap? To provide an answer, we employ a small stochastic New Keynesian model with a zero bound on nominal interest rates and characterize optimal time-consistent stabilization policies. We focus on two policy tools, the short-term nominal interest rate and debt-financed government spending. The optimal policy response to a liquidity trap critically depends on the prevailing debt burden. In our model, while the optimal amount of government spending is decreasing in the level of outstanding government debt, future monetary policy is becoming more accommodative, triggering a change in private sector expectations that helps to dampen the fall in output and inflation at the outset of the liquidity trap.
BASE
How does the need to preserve government debt sustainability affect the optimal monetary and fiscal policy response to a liquidity trap? To provide an answer, we employ a small stochastic New Keynesian model with a zero bound on nominal interest rates and characterize optimal time-consistent stabilization policies. We focus on two policy tools, the short-term nominal interest rate and debt-financed government spending. The optimal policy response to a liquidity trap critically depends on the prevailing debt burden. While the optimal amount of government spending is decreasing in the level of outstanding government debt, future monetary policy is becoming more accommodative, triggering a change in private sector expectations that helps to dampen the fall in output and inflation at the outset of the liquidity trap.
BASE
How does the need to preserve government debt sustainability affect the optimal monetary and fiscal policy response to a liquidity trap? To provide an answer, we employ a small stochastic New Keynesian model with a zero bound on nominal interest rates and characterize optimal time-consistent stabilization policies. We focus on two policy tools, the short-term nominal interest rate and debt-financed government spending. The optimal policy response to a liquidity trap critically depends on the prevailing debt burden. In our model, while the optimal amount of government spending is decreasing in the level of outstanding government debt, future monetary policy is becoming more accommodative, triggering a change in private sector expectations that helps to dampen the fall in output and inflation at the outset of the liquidity trap.
BASE
In: ECB Working Paper No. 1622
SSRN
Working paper
How does the need to preserve government debt sustainability affect the optimal monetary and fiscal policy response to a liquidity trap? To provide an answer, we employ a small stochastic New Keynesian model with a zero bound on nominal interest rates and characterize optimal time-consistent stabilization policies. We focus on two policy tools, the short-term nominal interest rate and debt-financed government spending. The optimal policy response to a liquidity trap critically depends on the prevailing debt burden. While the optimal amount of government spending is decreasing in the level of outstanding government debt, future monetary policy is becoming more accommodative, triggering a change in private sector expectations that helps to dampen the fall in output and inflation at the outset of the liquidity trap.
BASE
We disaggregate government spending into five macroeconomic-relevant components: average wage, employment, purchases of intermediate goods and services, investment and transfers. We set up a simple RBC model with only search and matching frictions in the labour market to show that these components have different, quantitative and sometimes qualitative, effects on output, private wages and employment, the unemployment rate and private consumption. Using simulated data we show that a VAR with aggregate government spending and output does not identify any type of fiscal shock. We then use the several identification strategies proposed in the literature to understand the effects of different components, for the United States. We find that both the average wage and employment have larger multipliers than purchases of intermediate goods, investment and transfers. They also have distinct effects on private wages and private consumption.
BASE
In: ECB Working Paper No. 882
SSRN
In: Swiss National Bank Working Paper No. 01/2024
SSRN
In: ECB Working Paper No. 933
SSRN